Odds for Fast Chase System in all three cases

Previously I posted examples with derived probabilities as well as the calculated probabilities for the base case when the fugitive and the pursuer are at similar speeds. For this post I calculated the probabilities for chases where the Pursuer and the Fugitive were significantly faster or slower.

Chase	No Result	Ex Fire	Melee	Hide	Escape	Cornered	Escape w/Clue
3d6 v 2d6	17%	66%	17%	7%	3%	17%	0.5%
2d6 v 2d6	19%	51%	17%	17%	17%	17%	3%
2d6 v 1d6	44%	31%	0%	17%	17%	0%	0%

So what can we conclude?

• The probability of getting No Result increases as the speed of the fugitive increases relative to the pursuer. I don't have a strong opinion about this, but this seems acceptable.
• The probability of an exchange of fire decreases as the speed of the fugitive increases relative to the pursuer. A faster fugitive will be harder to keep in range and to obtain the leisure to take a shot. So the results of the system align with what one would naturally expect.
• The probability of a Melee attack by the pursuer on the fugitive remains the same (1/6) unless the pursuer is significantly slower at which point the odds drop to 0. The 0% for a significantly slower pursuer is fine, but the chance to get a swing in on the fugitive should increase when the pursuer is significantly faster. 
• The odds of the fugitive getting out of sight long enough to Hide are the same (1/6) unless the fugitive is significantly slower. In this case the odds drop to 7%. The lower odds to Hide when the fugitive is slower makes sense, but a faster fugitive should have a better chance to get out of sight long enough to Hide from his pursuer and the rules don't reflect that.
  Fix: give the pursuer a Bonus Die to spot a hidden fugitive when the fugitive is slower. This would make the probability to successfully Hide increase as the speed of the fugitive increases relative to the pursuer. (Or alternatively give the fugitive a Penalty Die.)
• Escape and Hide are similar. The odds that the fugitive is able to Escape are the same (1/6) unless the fugitive is significantly slower. In this case the odds drop to 3%. The lower odds to Escape when the fugitive is slower makes sense, but a faster fugitive should have a better chance to Escape and the rules don't reflect that.
• Cornered has exactly the same probabilities as Melee and the same issues. The probability that a fugitive is Cornered by the pursuer remains the same (1/6) unless the pursuer is significantly slower at which point the odds drop to 0. The 0% for a significantly slower pursuer is fine, but the chance that a fugitive is Cornered should increase when the pursuer is significantly faster than the fugitive.
  Fix: give the pursuer a Bonus Die on their melee attack when they are significantly faster than the fugitive. This would make the probability to successfully attack the fugitive increase as speed of the pursuer increases relative to the fugitive.
• At first glance it may not be clear what drives the probabilities for Escape with a Clue left behind, in part because the rounding slightly obscures the situation. In fact the probabilities here are simply the product of the probabilities for Escape and for Cornered. So we have the same relative probability except when the fugitive is faster when there is no chance of a clue being left behind. An argument could be made that a clue should be most likely when the speeds are similar since the distance between pursued and fugitive will be the shortest. But that isn't what the system does. Given that the probabilities here are small, I'm actually not too concerned that the probabilities remain relatively the same when their is any chance for the pursuers to corner the fugitives.

I like the base 2d6 mechanic and modification by adding or subtracting a die, however the outcomes aren't quite what I would want. Using a Bonus/Penalty Die for the Stealth/Savvy check and for the Melee attack are good fixes. I may try tweaking the system further. On the other hand the system is easy to implement and its only an optional system for fast chase resolution so I may just live with some of the probabilities being different than what I might prefer.

Click for revised Fast Chase Rules.